Scott Morrison wants you believe the budget's strong enough to fund tax cuts.
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It isn't, and the update makes that clear.
As it is required to do, it spells out the stated aim of the budget - what the Coalition has pledged to achieve since its election - on page 31.
The aim is to "deliver sustainable budget surpluses, building to at least 1 per cent of GDP, as soon as possible, consistent with the medium-term fiscal strategy".
That's a surplus of 1 per cent of gross domestic product, as soon as possible, consistent with quality spending and economic growth.
After a boost to the budget of about $10 billion over four years, what has it been left with?
A budget surplus of just one half of one per cent of GDP by the end of the four year projection period.
It's an improvement. The May budget pencilled in 0.4 per cent. But it's nothing like the 1 per cent of GDP the Coalition itself adopted as a target to be reached "as soon as possible". And beyond those four years the graph in the update shows the surplus staying put at half a per cent of GDP right out to 2027.
Weakening that budget position by giving some of it away, as the Prime Minister and Treasurer are hinting they will in next May's budget, would be a further abrogation of a pledge the Coalition hasn't come near fulfilling ever since it made it in 2014.
Improving the budget, certainly improving it by the billions that would be needed to fund reasonable tax cuts, is hard. Almost all of the $10 billion improvement this time came came from (generally mining-related) higher company profits and superannuation earnings, as well as lower than expected payments to Australians who are out of work. Government actions improved the outlook by about half a billion. It won't be enough.
Peter Martin is economics editor of The Age.
