Hunter's COVID numbers still impressive, but you might cross your fingers

But right now you'd have to be one hell of an optimist to think the Hunter isn't edging closer to an inevitable COVID-19 spike. It seems to be closing in on us daily.

The Victorian outbreak has well and truly crossed the Murray.

By Friday, the NSW Government's list of potential hot spots included the following suburbs - Albion Park, Belfield, Belmore, Bowral, Brighton Le Sands, Campbelltown, Casula, Narellan, North Wollongong, Parramatta, Pyrmont, Revesby, Tahmoor and Villawood.

The specific venues within these areas were high traffic sites - Star Casino, Kmart, Woolworths, various restaurants, taverns, food courts, Target, a bowling alley, a YMCA and a couple of big Leagues Clubs.

The Government was asking people who have been to them to monitor for symptoms, and potentially get tested and self isolate.

That's thousands and thousands of people. All going home to their families, their kids, or on school holiday.

Now, let's add in the fact that earlier this week Wallsend MP Sonia Hornery said that Sydney people, frustrated at the long queues for COVID testing, were driving up the highway to get tested at Newcastle - and you would have to think the Central Coast too.

Plus the hundreds of Victorians who have been turned back at the Queensland border and are driving back through NSW, presumably getting petrol, going to shops and cafes along the way, staying at motels.

It means that there are a lot of potential carriers in NSW who are on the move.

For years now the Lower Hunter has prided itself as a tourist destination - statistics invariably show it is the second most visited place for tourists in NSW, after Sydney.

We have the wineries, Newcastle and the beaches down the road, the sometimes-sleepy-sometimes-bustling Morpeth village, we're the gateway to the Upper Hunter and Barrington Tops.

After the lockdown was eased a month or so back the wineries, despite adhering to all the social distancing requirements, have been swamped.

The Mercury spoke to one cellar door manager who said sales continue to go through the roof. Many wineries are using outdoor seating to cater for guests, while still meeting social distancing regulations. Accommodation bookings are very strong.

This is presumably due largely to stir crazy Sydneysiders looking to get out of the big smoke after lockdown and get some country air.

Want to take a second look at those hot spots? Predominantly Sydney.

And they're being served by local residents - at the pubs, restaurants, shops and cellar doors. That's a lot of social interaction.

The NSW Government's postcode map shows that there are a handful of active cases in Newcastle and none in Maitland at the time of writing.

Let's hope it stays that way. But you might cross your fingers.