Newcastle COVID cases rise as close contact rules change and Hunter feels effect of nightclub outbreak

Traffic queues snaking in all directions from testing sites across the region on Wednesday demonstrated how widespread the Newcastle outbreak had become as case numbers climbed to 415. Health authorities predict there are much higher numbers to come.

More than 31 per cent of the state's 1360 COVID cases were in the Hunter on Wednesday, but as the state "learns to live" with the virus, the NSW government is putting the onus on "personal responsibility" moving forward, as mask mandates and other restrictions ease.

But by way of preventing thousands of people from spending Christmas in isolation, the state government announced that there will be fewer circumstances that will be deemed "close contact" events.

From now on, fully vaccinated close contacts will only have to isolate until they receive a negative PCR test.

But household close contacts - and close contacts in any other settings identified by NSW Health - will still be required to isolate for seven days and comply with PCR testing requirements.

Hunter New England Health's Dr David Durrheim said they believed most of the region's new cases to the "highly transmissible" Omicron variant. Most cases who had been double vaccinated or had a booster have had "very mild illness" so far.

"Unfortunately, many of the people who are confirmed cases did attend other gatherings in pubs, clubs and at Christmas events." he said. "We can expect further cases in the next couple of days."

Of the 827 total active cases in Hunter New England, seven are receiving care in hospital and three are in intensive care.

Dr Durrheim said even with the further relaxation of state restrictions it was "jolly sensible" to continue wearing masks, particularly in indoor settings.

While State Premier Dominic Perrottet has "every confidence" the health system will cope with rapidly rising case numbers, the Newcastle Herald understands frontline staff at Newcastle hospitals have been heavily affected by the growing list of cases and exposure sites - forcing the remaining workforce to work overtime to cope.

Mr Perrottet said on Wednesday the state's focus needed to shift away from case numbers - which the Health Minister predicts could hit 25,000 a day by the end of January - to hospitalisations.

His sentiments offered little comfort to "frustrated" Hunter business owners scrambling to stay open amid staff shortages caused by the outbreak.

Business Hunter chief, Bob Hawes, said the circumstances currently facing Newcastle were "unique" to the rest of the state.

"We know venues are fielding cancellations, as guests and community members are assessing and taking a risk-averse approach and calling off end of year gatherings," he said. "Many are feeling like our city may end up in a lockdown by default.

"For businesses, safety is a priority, but taking a financial hit by having to close and cease trade to clean or re-adjust staffing - even two days for some businesses may be the last straw."

Argyle House, the Newcastle nightclub that inadvertently became the epicentre of the region's outbreak after hosting a super-spreader event last week, will not re-open until "after Christmas".

"We are devastated that just as things were looking to return to a 'new normal', we have unknowingly been one of the transmission sites for this current wave of COVID infections," the venue said on social media. "We're heartbroken to see the effect this has had on so many individuals and businesses in Newcastle."

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said this week the person who triggered the Argyle House cluster appeared to have defied an order to self isolate after being exposed to the virus at a Sydney Harbour boat party.

In excess of 200 cases have now been linked to the Argyle House event, and at least a third of the people who attended a medical ball at NEX on Friday night have tested positive to COVID-19.

Another 1000 people have been identified as being at Finnegan's Hotel on Friday at the same time as at least six positive COVID cases.

University of Newcastle public health academic and Flutracking founder Dr Craig Dalton had identified nightclubs as high risk venues that would play a major role in transmitting COVID-19 in a paper published in June 2020.

"Those settings amplify transmission," he said. "I think at this stage we have to weigh the societal and economic benefits of the higher risk settings against the wider economy being able to open and flourish."

He said the people who were concerned about catching COVID were "voting with their feet" and not going to the riskier venues.

"That means the people who are going to the riskier venues are the people more likely to take risks, less likely to have booster doses, less likely to wear masks, more likely to go out when they have symptoms, and less likely to get tested," he said.

Should predictions of 25,000 COVID daily NSW cases by the end of January prove true, Dr Dalton said that could still amount to about 50 intensive care admissions a day - even if Omicron proved to be far less severe than the Delta variant.

"The severity has to be very low for us to cope with it," he said. "It has to be very mild."

Dr Dalton supported calls for people to get their booster shots as soon as they were eligible.

"I think boosters will make a dramatic difference, because the antibody response is huge to the booster doses," he said.

"If you are six months passed your two dose shot, you should almost consider yourself unvaccinated against the Omicron strain," he said.