A greater than 80 per cent chance of above average rainfall, and higher than average temperatures.
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That's the Bureau of Meteorology 2020 Spring Outlook for NSW, released this week.
The Bureau's Manager of Climate Operations Dr Andrew Watkins said the outlook was being largely driven by changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans.
"Most long-range forecasts analysed by the Bureau, including from our own climate model, are indicating a La Nina could develop in the Spring, which typically results in above-average winter-spring rainfall for Australia, particularly across eastern, central and northern regions," Dr Watkins said.
"A La Nina also typically brings cooler and cloudier days, more tropical cyclones, and an earlier onset of the first rains of the northern wet season."
Dr Watkins said Spring was typically a time of year when outlook models had a higher reliability.
"At this time of year, we start to see some of our main climate drivers locking in, which gives more certainty about what our weather patterns will be like in the coming months," he said.
"We're starting to see that in the Pacific with a La Nina beginning to take shape, and we are also seeing some changes in the Indian Ocean, which may also boost the chance of rain during Spring."
Dr Watkins said the recent winter period is likely to be one of the warmest on record, with above average temperatures particularly prevalent across Western Australia and Queensland.
"Overall, winter was drier than average for every state except NSW. It was particularly wet in Gippsland in Victoria and the south coast of NSW," he said.
Here's a few fast fact predictions for Spring at both national and state level.
NATIONAL
- Above average rainfall predicted for most of eastern Australia. This is due to the potential development of La Nina, as well as warmer ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean.
- Warmer conditions and above average temperatures are likely, especially in the north of Australia and the far south-east including Tasmania.
Preliminary winter summary:
- Likely to be one of the ten warmest winters on record.
- A likely drier than average winter overall, despite wetter than average in August in some areas.
NSW:
- Greater than 80% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the state, particularly central and western NSW due to an increased likelihood of a La Nina forming.
- A slightly lower chance of exceeding median rainfall along the mid to north coast.
- Higher than average temperatures predicted.
Preliminary winter summary:
- Rainfall was above average in July and August with total rainfall above the long-term average and the wettest winter since 2016.
- Several complex coastal lows resulted in heavy rainfall events for the south coast.
- Mean maximum temperatures were likely above average along the coast, and close to average inland.
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A journo all my working life and never wanted to change, also a self confessed sports tragic.
A journo all my working life and never wanted to change, also a self confessed sports tragic.
